By: Drivastum
With the mourning period for the passing of Pope Francis nearing an end, and with the conclave fast approaching, I wanted to make a short article talking about the names that have been discussed so far in terms of potentially becoming the next Pope, as well as make a sort of evaluation or ranking to express my preference as a Traditionalist.
I want to make something quite clear: May all be done according to the will of God and the prudence of the Church. As a Traditionalist myself, I would be happy to have a more traditionalist Pope lead the Church. However, my voice is not authoritative, nor should it be. Should they choose someone more progressive, I shall accept that result and we should face the ensuing challenges as they come. However, I wanted to come up with somewhat of a “Trad Favorability Score,” to express my preferences, and that is exactly what I did.
Now, for the methodology (if you can call it that). The Trad Favorability Score (TFS) is a composite percentage made up of three subscores, the “Issue Score” (IS), “Age Score” (AS) and “Participation & Ambiguity Score” (P&A).
First of the subscores is the Issue Score or IS. When Pope Francis was selected, he was, I believe, chosen for what were his strong suits. His pastoral ability, preaching, compassion and more. However, The Church has not been challenged on its pastoral nature, its compassion, charity or anything in that dimension. Rather, it has been challenged on its fundamental teachings and doctrines. Whether it be feminism, homosexuality, abortion, or attempts to once and for all entrench the liturgical innovations of Vatican II, the Church has faced most, if not all of its challenges on this front. And while Pope Francis did more to defend those traditions, doctrines, and the traditional magisterial teachings of the Church than people give him credit for, one could easily argue he was not the best equipped to deal with those issues. That is why now, more than ever, would be a great time for the doctrinally and liturgically orthodox Catholics to have a more staunch, clear, concise, outspoken, and media-savvy champion. This is what the IS aims to measure.
The IS is based on the information on this website, which posits 10 fronts on which progressives aim to reform the Church and its Teaching. Those are:
1. The Ordination of Women
2. Blessing of Homosexual Pairings
3. Making Priestly Celibacy Optional
4. Restricting the Traditional Latin Mass
5. Vatican-China Secret Accords
6. Promoting a Synodal Church
7. Focus on Climate Change
8. Reassessment of Humanae Vitae
9. Communion for “Divorced and Remarried”
10. The German “Synodal Way”Each of the names this website lists as “Papabile” are marked on each of these issues with either a ✔ if they support the reform, an ❌ if they do not, a ↔ if they have not clearly supported one side, and a❔if they haven’t said anything on the topic at all. The score is calculated by making the number of issues spoken on the denominator, as well as making an ❌ worth 1 point, a ↔ worth 0.5, and a ✔ worth 0 points. The❔will not factor into this subscore, but it will factor in later.
The second subscore is the Age Score or AS. Very obviously, I and everyone (I hope) would want the next Pope to have a long and healthy pontificate. This score was much simpler to put together. I set 5 age ranges and assigned to them point values out of 5:
1. ≤65 – 5 points
2. 66-70 – 4 points
3. 71-75 – 3 points
4. 76-79 – 2 points
5. ≥80 – 1 point
The third and final subscore is the Participation and Ambiguity (P&A) score. This score brings us back to the issues page, but for a different reason. The Church is engaged in all sorts of widely varied discussion topics, from social issues, to political ones as well as ones related to interfath dialogue. Someone who is actively engaged in as many of these crucial conversations as possible would be someone that, at least I, would prefer for the spot.Mathematically speaking, this score is the most strict and functions more like a penalty. In the denominator are the sum of ↔ and❔issues where we have little, conflicting, or no information on what position the cardinal holds (there is one exception here, which I will clarify later). The only way points can be obtained here are for the ↔, which like in the IS, are worth 0.5 points. This score usually ends up being quite low, if not 0.In the end of course, all three are weighed (IS-60% of TFS, AS-20%, and P&A-20%), averaged out and converted to a percentage. And now for the scores, in the order in which the names are listed on the site:
1. Cardinal Anders Arborelius – Bishop of Stockholm
• IS: 4.5/9
• AS: 3/5
• P&A: 0.5/2
• TFS: 47%
2. Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline – Metropolitan Bishop of Marseille
• IS: 3/6
• AS: 4/5
• P&A: 1/6
• TFS: 49%
3. Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco – Archbishop Emeritus of Genoa
• IS: 4.5/5
• AS: 1/5
• P&A: 0.5/6
• TFS: 60%
4. Cardinal Charles Bo – Archbishop of Yangon
• IS: 3.5/7
• AS: 2/5
• P&A: 0.5/4
• TFS: 41%
5. Cardinal Stephen Brislin – Metropolitan Archbishop of Johannesburg
• IS: 1/7
• AS: 4/5
• P&A: 1/5
• TFS: 29%
6. Cardinal Raymond Burke – Prefect Emeritus of the Supreme Tribunal of the Apostolic Signatura
• IS: 10/10
• AS: 2/5
• P&A: Perfect 1.0
• TFS: 88%
7. Cardinal Willem Eijk – Metropolitan Archbishop of Utrecht
• IS: 6.5/7
• AS: 3/5
• P&A: 0.5/4
• TFS: 70%
8. Cardinal Péter Erdő – Metropolitan Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
• IS: 3.5/4
• AS: 3/5
• P&A: 0.5/7
• TFS: 66%
9. Cardinal Fernando Filoni – Grand Master of the Equestrian Order of the Holy Sepulchre of Jerusalem
• IS: ½
• AS: 2/5
• P&A: 1/10
• TFS: 40%
10. Cardinal Kurt Koch – Prefect for the Dicastery for Promoting Christian Unity
• IS: 4/7
• AS: 2/5
• P&A: 3/9
• TFS: 49%
11. Cardinal Gerhard Müller – Prefect Emeritus of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith
• IS: 10/10
• AS: 2/5
• P&A: Perfect 1.0
• TFS: 88%
13. Cardinal Pietro Parolin – Vatican Secretary of State
• IS: 3/10
• AS: 3/5
• P&A: 2/4
• TFS: 40%
14. Cardinal Mauro Piacenza – Major Penitentiary Emeritus of the Apostolic Penitentiary
• IS: 3/3
• AS: 1/5
• P&A: 0/7
• TFS: 64%
15. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa – Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
• IS: 4/5
• AS: 5/5
• P&A: 1/7
• TFS: 71%
16. Cardinal Albert Ranjith – Metropolitan Archbishop of Colombo
• IS: 7.5/9
• AS: 2/5
• P&A: 0.5/2
• TFS: 63%
17. Cardinal Robert Sarah – Prefect Emeritus of the Congregation for Divine Worship
• IS: 10/10*
• AS: 2/5
• P&A: Perfect 1
• TFS: 88%
*Here is the aforementioned exception. The one issue that shows up as❔on Cardinal Sarah’s record is the Vatican-China accords. This matter relates not to him so this can be tossed up to nobody either getting the chance or wanting to ask him about it. More than likely Cardinal Sarah need not be asked about this particular issue for us to intuit where he stands. It makes no sense for him to get a 0 on P&A here when his outspokenness outlines his position on such matters sufficiently. This is also his only P&A issue, meaning he is otherwise as actively participant and unambiguous as it gets.
18. Cardinal Daniel Sturla – Metropolitan Archbishop of Montevideo
• IS: 5/5
• AS: 5/5
• P&A: 0/5
• TFS: 80%
19. Cardinal Luis Tagle – Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization
• IS: 3/9
• AS: 4/5
• P&A: 2/5
• TFS: 44%
20. Cardinal José Mendonça – Prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education
• IS: ¼
• AS: 5/5
• P&A: 1/8
• TFS: 38%
21. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi – Archbishop of Bologna
• IS: 1.5/9
• AS: 4/5
• P&A: 0.5/2
• TFS: 31%
These being the scores, we can now come up with a ranking for the Cardinals here. As for tiebreakers, if TFS is tied, Age score determines the ranking, If that is also tied, actual age determines the ranking. No further tiebreaker was needed. So, here is the top 10 by TFS:
1. Cardinal Raymond Burke – 88%
2. Cardinal Gerhard Müller – 88%
3. Cardinal Robert Sarah – 88%
4. Cardinal Daniel Sturla – 80%
5. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa – 71%
6. Cardinal Willem Eijk – 70%
7. Cardinal Péter Erdő – 66%
8. Cardinal Mauro Piacenza – 64%
9. Cardinal Albert Ranjith – 63%
10. Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco – 60%
As a conclusion, I would like to riterate that this is not a prediction, nor is it a set of demands, it is simply an expression of preference. Do not refer to things like betting odds or predictions, since for example on some of those kinds of lists, Pope Francis was only 15th in likelyhood. A name that was not even listed here, such as Cardinal Zen, or someone else we aren’t even aware of could be selected. Rather than speculate I will pray for the repose of the soul of Pope Francis, pray and wish the traditionalists favor in God’s eyes, and pray for the more progressive papabile in the College of Cardinals, that they may embrace the fullness of traditional teaching and magesterial doctrine of the Church. God Bless, and Christ is King.
